Dear President Trump,

I write to commend your administration and the State of Qatar for brokering what you have rightly called “one of the most consequential peace agreements in the world today”—the accord signed in Washington between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Republic of Rwanda. Your personal engagement, strategic instinct, and willingness to act where others have failed are praiseworthy. For a region haunted by decades of bloodshed and betrayal, even the glimmer of peace is a welcome breath of hope.

As someone who has witnessed unimaginable death and destruction, lived through exile most of my life, and studied the politics of Rwanda and the Great Lakes for decades—including serving as a senior official in post-genocide Rwanda—I am compelled to speak frankly: the peace deal, as it stands, is vulnerable to exploitation by bad actors. Unless strengthened with meaningful guarantees, it risks becoming yet another page in the long book of broken promises that have defined this region since the 1990s.

The most obvious warning comes from Rwanda’s own past. In 1993, General Paul Kagame signed the Arusha Peace Accords. A few months later, that fragile agreement was broken when President Juvenal Habyarimana—co-signatory to the agreement—was killed in a plane crash, sparking the terrible genocide of 1994. Since then, Rwanda has repeatedly promised to pull its forces out of Congolese land, only to show up again in different forms: the RCD in 1998, CNDP in 2004, M23 in 2012, and once more now.

Today, under General Kagame, Rwanda has transformed into a military-security state with a history of covert operations, proxy warfare, and ambitions to destabilize the region. He is skilled in secret tactics, often saying one thing to the international community while doing another on the ground. Any peace agreement with such a party must be based not on trust but on verifiable actions and enforceable deterrents.

Equally concerning is the structural weakness of the Congolese state. President Tshisekedi presides over a nation vast in geography but fractured in governance. The Congolese army (FARDC) is underfunded, infiltrated by informal networks, and plagued by command dysfunction. Armed groups roam freely in the eastern provinces, and even well-intentioned reforms take years to materialize. In such asymmetry, General Kagame retains strategic leverage, always able to dictate the tempo and theatre of engagement.

Mr. President, you have built your career on the central insight that deals must be backed by leverage. In The Art of the Deal, you taught us that “leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs.” Rwanda, and indeed the entire region, wants American legitimacy, Qatari investment, and access to critical minerals.

But if these are handed out without reciprocal performance, then peace will remain elusive. The devil, as always, is in the details.

At present, the peace accord has gaps that General Kagame is likely to exploit:

There are no automatic penalties for non-compliance.

The monitoring mechanism lacks independence and teeth.

The M23 rebels are not direct signatories, allowing Rwanda plausible deniability.

There is no sequencing that ties economic incentives to verifiable security benchmarks.

The Congolese state lacks the capacity to reciprocate or hold Kigali accountable.

General Kagame knows how to exploit such gaps. He will offer symbolic gestures—perhaps a brigade or two withdrawn for the cameras—while keeping advisors in civilian clothes and arms flowing through back channels. He will blame Kinshasa’s slowness, regional instability, or the threat of FDLR rebels to justify “temporary” re-intervention. Before long, the cycle resumes.

If this peace is to be real, I urge you to do what others before you have hesitated to do: turn promises into pressure, and pressure into compliance. Drawing on lessons from successful coercive diplomacy and principled negotiation, I respectfully propose five actions that can guarantee this deal’s survival:

• Codify Sanctions with Teeth. Attach a binding annex to the agreement outlining automatic penalties—visa bans, asset freezes, suspension of mineral-related investments—triggered by independently verified violations, such as continued troop presence or rebel rearmament.
• Integrate M23 into the Framework. Ensure that Doha’s shuttle diplomacy results in a ceasefire protocol directly signed by M23 commanders, witnessed by the African Union and the United Nations, and tied to phased disarmament and political reintegration of marginalized communities.
• Deploy an Independent Verification Mission. Establish a joint AU-EAC verification team, with U.S. satellite support and Qatari funding, authorized to inspect border areas, mine sites, and known rebel positions. Let them publish weekly public reports—facts cannot be manipulated if they are transparent.
• Link Mineral Investment to Security Delivery. No critical mineral contract should reach financial close until the full withdrawal of Rwandan troops is verified and Congolese civilian control over mining areas is restored. Keep the prize in escrow until the peace is bankable.
• Empower Africa to Police Its Own. Enlist the African Union, SADC, and the East African Community to issue pre-drafted communiqués warning of suspension or isolation should either party backslide. This gives the agreement a regional ownership and reputational cost that General Kagame cannot ignore.

Mr. President, what you have done is brave and intelligent. This region has seen too many ceremonies and too few consequences. With enforcement, verification, and calibrated incentives, you have the chance not just to sign a deal but to make history.

Peace in the Great Lakes region will not come from handshakes alone. Sustained pressure, visible deterrents, and rigorous truth-telling must earn it. As you said at the signing, this is a war that should have ended long ago. Let this not be the birth of another broken promise, but the first day of something durable.

The people of the DRC—and indeed of Rwanda itself—are watching, wounded but hopeful. This time, let the words on paper translate into lives saved, homes rebuilt, and a future redeemed.

With respect and determination,

(See in Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/open-letter-us-president-donald-j-trump-drcrwanda-peace-rudasingwa-5kyve/?trackingId=PZrcwOwayOZtvNN0nLhKlw%3D%3D)

Contact: ngombwa@gmail.com

Du même auteur https://www.echosdafrique.com/20200508-precarite-des-generaux-de-kagame