Brics or the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation? This is the question many observers are asking when considering Africa’s future, following the parade in Beijing last September. Within the former framework, the continent finds a place; within the latter, it is excluded. Yet the real issue lies elsewhere: the geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards Asia, the main arena of strategic competition with the United States, the fastest-growing economic region, and a crucial bridge between two oceans, particularly towards the Pacific.

Meanwhile, the Brics are faltering. Brazil and South Africa, though critical of the West, remain anchored to democratic systems and to a culture of rights that does not align with the authoritarian models promoted by Moscow and Beijing. The South African case is emblematic. The ANC has historically carried a radical ideological legacy, tempered by Nelson Mandela’s leadership and by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission chaired by Archbishop Desmond Tutu. Yet while South Africa has promoted economic empowerment and black business, it has also internalised global norms on human rights and emerging social sensitivities, often finding itself at odds with Moscow and Beijing. Pretoria nonetheless remains the only genuine African power with global reach, to the extent that it has attracted both Trump-era hostility — including the unfounded allegation of “white genocide” — and Russian irritation, since it cannot disregard its obligations towards the International Criminal Court. This constraint forced Vladimir Putin to forgo attending the most recent Brics summit held in Pretoria.

In Asia, the picture is more straightforward. Moscow finds a natural environment for its “Asianist” vocation, the alliance with Beijing grows stronger, and Africa risks slipping to the margins of the new global architecture, much as it once did in relation to the West. Concepts such as “African Renaissance” and “African Solutions for African Problems” have enjoyed symbolic resonance but limited practical implementation. Neither the United States, nor Europe, nor China, nor Russia appear willing to engage decisively in African crises. The war in Sudan is a striking example. On one side stand the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General al-Burhan, the country’s president; on the other, the highly irregular militias of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under the former janjaweed leader Hemetti. The international community should decide whom it recognises, but prefers not to do so. The United Arab Emirates, Libya’s General Haftar and Chad support Hemetti. Egypt should support the SAF but maintains a careful balance, as does Saudi Arabia. No one wishes to intervene to seek solutions to this war, yet everyone has interests to protect. The European Union has stated that it will recognise the SAF as the de facto government, a modest step forward. The RSF complains of being side-lined in various international formats addressing the crisis, despite enjoying Emirati backing. China remains on the side-lines, despite its strategic interests. The United States attempted, during the Biden administration, a triangulation with Riyadh, but without tangible results.

And Italy? Some African countries perceive it as a less threatening partner than the major powers and one more inclined towards dialogue. This is the context in which the Mattei Plan is positioned, aiming to help Africa process its raw materials locally, fostering industrialisation and added value. It is a long-term objective that will require decades before producing concrete outcomes.

The truth is that the greatest mistake made by both the West and Asia is to believe that Africa is still waiting for guidance. In reality, the continent is moving forward on its own terms, as it should: more independent, more aware, more autonomous. It no longer seeks protection or paternalism. It decides, it chooses, it sometimes makes mistakes — but these are its own mistakes, not ones imposed from outside. This is a reality the world must learn to accept.

See, L’Africa tra esclusione e protagonismo