Qatar must be breathing a sigh of relief. Even as the sheikhdom’s plan to restore Hamas rule in Gaza is becoming troublingly visible, its prospects for its success are actually strengthening. Those of us who were puzzled why Hamas would release all hostages living and dead, commit to disarmament and tolerate a potentially permanent Israeli presence in Gaza are now starting to get it.

First the picture, then the dots that connect to draw it. The IDF’s gradual conquest of Gaza City seems to have signalled a possible end game with Hamas the big loser. Despite Hamas’s threat (which we now know it made good on) to use the hostages as human shields, and notwithstanding IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir’s vocal and public opposition to aggressive, hostage-endangering manoeuvres, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s apparent determination to proceed regardless seems to have spooked Qatar and its Hamas client.

Up until that point, the balance of ultimate costs persistently favoured Hamas. The IDF has hardly been gentle in Gaza but scrupulously avoided combat in the central camps and most of Gaza City, anywhere intelligence suggested that hostages might be present. That left the possibility that Hamas’s core demands – Israel fully out of Gaza, Hamas back in charge – could ultimately be met. Widespread destruction, civilian deaths and even the elimination of Hamas’s upper combat echelons were expected: Hamas plays such a long game that everyone is expendable. Its fighters are replaced, they rise as new leaders, money reliably flows from oil-rich states, and mounting civilian deaths only boost world pressure on Israel. It’s always worked before.

But maybe not this time. If Netanyahu, following Trump’s goading over the summer to end the war pronto, were really ready to risk the hostages and send in 10 divisions to fully occupy all of Gaza – costs and casualties be damned – Hamas was at real risk. He may have been bluffing but who knows. Suddenly, the hostages were no longer a trump card but could be used as bait. The trick would be to engineer a deal that Netanyahu couldn’t refuse, that would give Trump another jewel on his peacemaker’s tiara, and that would ultimately restore Hamas.

A Gaza Strip ruled by Hamas serves the interests of Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt. Qatar and Turkey openly support Hamas and Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems to have Putin-like ambitions to resurrect a lost empire; his troops are filling the power vacuum in Syria and a foothold in Gaza would rebalance regional dynamics around his leadership. Domestically, enabling Hamas’s return would fortify Erdoğan against an opposition that hates Israel even more than he does. For Egypt, as I’ve previously noted, Hamas is a source of smuggling baksheesh and a strategically beneficial drag on Israel’s military. And for Trump, a breakdown of his much-celebrated ceasefire plan would have reputational consequences; it is now too big to fail.

Qatar, which aligns with Hamas ideologically and whose financial support allows the sheikhdom to play indispensable go-between, surely counted on just this confluence of interests.

Now let’s look at the dots. Israeli public broadcaster KAN reports that, with Egypt’s apparent connivance, half the supposedly Hamas-free “technocratic” government for Gaza will (no longer secretly) be appointed by Hamas. The Turkish aid organization IHH, designated as a terror organization in Israel, already has boots on the ground in Gaza. Turkey expects to take part in the multinational stabilization force that will supposedly replace Hamas and to be involved in the reconstruction and revitalization of Gaza. Trump attributes deadly ceasefire violations by Hamas to “rogue elements” and, for the moment, has acceded to Hamas patrolling the streets of Gaza and summarily executing rivals.

Connect these dots and you see a gathering tide of interrelated forces that threatens to wash over the ceasefire agreement as written. Someone has to keep the peace. Someone has to rebuild Gaza. Alleviating the suffering of Gaza’s people cannot wait. Hamas will disarm, Qatar might assure soothingly, never mind what they say (and doubtless wishing they would just shut up for a minute). Standing athwart Trump’s agreement yelling “Stop!” is not an option for Netanyahu. Unnamed US administration officials have issued a pre-emptive warning against Israeli pushback in the form of misgivings, expressed to the New York Times, that Netanyahu wants to resume the war.

Israel must choose its red lines carefully and enforce them quickly while proclaiming devotion to Trump’s 20-point plan. It will be much easier to keep unwanted “peacekeepers” out than to dislodge them later. Even if Hamas nominally disarms, a Turkish expeditionary force will fold Hamas fighters into its ranks and lead Gaza for the Muslim Brotherhood – daring Israel to fight against a NATO member as its construction teams reconstitute tunnels and subterranean command centres at Qatar’s willing expense. Trump also has a soft spot for Erdoğan.

In addition to keeping Turkish troops and construction teams out of Gaza (a position Netanyahu appears to be taking), the red lines should, in my opinion, exclude any and all Qatari personnel from Gaza; close Israeli oversight of all reconstruction efforts, which must be preceded by the elimination of subterranean terrorist infrastructure; permanent Israeli control of the Gaza side of the Rafah Crossing, through which most of Hamas’s arsenal may well have been smuggled; and a permanent IDF perimeter presence around Gaza with the ability to act as the IDF does now in Judea and Samaria. With Rafah largely destroyed, Israel should revive the idea of a moat down to the water table along the length of Philadelphi to finally seal Gaza off from Egypt.

For Qatar, the ceasefire agreement has provided a nick-of-time opportunity to bait and switch. The Israeli public is elatedly focused on the hostages’ return. Its army is potent but exhausted. And Gaza has many needs. The bait is a Nobel-worthy settlement that seems to benefit everyone except Hamas, and the switch casts Israel as the lone dissenting voice against seemingly incremental measures that collectively enable the terror group’s re-emergence. Trump, with no illusions about Hamas but determined to preserve his deal, is fond of saying, “Let’s see what happens.” Israel can’t afford to wait and see.

See, The Restoration Plan for Hamas Comes into Focus