Global military spending has experienced a significant acceleration in recent years, reaching levels not seen since the end of the Second World War. The latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirm a structural shift in states’ economic priorities: nearly 40% of the world’s countries now devote more than 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defence, a symbolic threshold that until recently applied only to a small group of nations.

A dangerous normality

In the chapters of the World Economic Outlook dedicated to defence spending, conflict and economic recovery, the IMF notes that between 2020 and 2024 around 50% of countries increased their military budgets, and the share of states exceeding the 2% of GDP threshold rose from 27% in 2018 to nearly 40% in 2024. This indicates that what was long considered an ambitious benchmark is becoming a new and potentially dangerous normality.

At the root of this increase lies the rise in conflicts and geopolitical tensions over the past 15 years. Among the most significant factors, the IMF points to the return of large-scale warfare in Europe with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; tensions between major powers such as the United States and China; instability in the Middle East and Africa; and intensifying technological and military competition. These dynamics have prompted governments to redefine security as a strategic priority, often at the expense of other areas of public spending. This is a trend expected to strengthen further, confirming heightened geopolitical instability.

Rising defence spending among NATO countries

NATO member states, for instance, committed in June 2025 to raising annual defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, more than double the previous 2% target, in a context in which Poland plays a leading role within the Alliance with spending at 4.5%.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), arms sales by the world’s 100 largest defence companies have doubled in real terms over the past two decades. In 2024 alone, more than 35 countries, roughly half of which are classified as “fragile states” affected by conflict, experienced warfare on their territory. In the same year, around 45% of the global population lived in countries affected by conflict, which, in the IMF’s broadest assessment, range from localised border skirmishes to full-scale wars.

Beyond their devastating human toll, such conflicts generate inflationary shocks, fiscal pressures and internal imbalances, while hampering global growth. Post-conflict recovery remains slow and fragile, leaving lasting scars on both national macroeconomies and individuals. Recovery is driven primarily by labour, while capital and productivity remain weak, and it depends on the stability of peace: if sustained, it allows for partial recovery; if conflict resumes, growth stalls.

A global trend

The rise in military expenditure and the fact that nearly 40% of countries now exceed the 2% of GDP threshold therefore mark a historic turning point. This is no longer an objective confined to NATO, but a global trend linked to an undeniably more unstable international environment.

While this strengthens states’ military capabilities, it raises critical questions: is it sustainable in the long term? Which civilian sectors will be sacrificed? Is this a temporary phase or a new normal?

The answers will depend on the evolution of geopolitical balances in the years ahead. One fact, however, is clear: defence has once again become a central priority in the public budgets of nearly half the world.

See, Fmi: crescita senza precedenti per il riarmo nel mondo